
7/08/2025:
Tuesday Mortgage Memo: Your Weekly Market Highlights
5 KEY HIGHLIGHTS BROKERS NEED TO KNOW
With rising bond yields, conflicting economic signals, and lender caution building, this week is another reminder that volatility is the new normal. Proactive brokers who translate data into clear strategies will win trust—and deals.
1️⃣ Bond Yields Climb as Tariff Worries Resurface
Canada’s 5-year bond yield rose by 3 basis points last week, tracking renewed tariff concerns and an uptick in U.S. Treasury yields. While modest in scale, this move underscores the sensitivity of rates to geopolitical risk and trade policy headlines. Many lenders are monitoring funding costs closely and cautioning that any sustained upward momentum in yields could translate into rate sheet increases.
Source: 5yr Yield Climbs 3 Bps as Tariff Worries Resurface – Mortgage Logic News – July 7, 2025
🔑 Broker Strategy: Encourage clients to secure pre-approvals now, as spreads remain tight and lender appetite is mixed. Emphasize that small moves in yields can quickly translate into higher fixed pricing.
2️⃣ U.S. Employment Divergence Creates Market Confusion
Last week’s U.S. jobs data produced a dramatic split: the BLS reported +74,000 private jobs added, while ADP showed –33,000, the worst reading since March 2023. This discrepancy is fueling uncertainty about the true health of the U.S. labor market—and by extension, the Fed’s policy outlook. While equity markets rallied on the BLS data, bond traders remain skeptical, keeping volatility elevated.
Source: RMG Friday Afternoon Bru – Bruno Valko – July 4, 2025

🔑 Broker Strategy: Use this confusion as an opportunity to educate clients. Explain how mixed data can delay decisive moves from the Fed—and why this uncertainty is keeping Canadian rates stuck in a tight range.
3️⃣ Fixed Rates Steady, but Rate Cuts Look Less Certain
Fixed mortgage rates held steady last week, supported by a pause in funding cost escalation. However, traders have dialed back expectations for a BoC cut this month, with swaps pricing just a 28% chance of a reduction. This is down from nearly 50% odds just two weeks ago. Inflation stickiness and geopolitical factors remain the main obstacles to more dovish policy.
Source: Should Canadians Choose a Fixed or Variable Rate During a Trade War? – Integrated Mortgage Planners – July 7, 2025
🔑 Broker Strategy: Remind clients that fixed rates remain near their multi-month lows. Frame pre-approvals as insurance against potential funding spread widening and shifting central bank sentiment.
4️⃣ Trade Wars May Cloud Housing Demand
Rising tariffs on U.S.-Canada auto exports are sparking concerns about job losses and consumer confidence in Ontario and Quebec. Economists warn that a protracted trade standoff could weigh on near-term purchase demand, even if rates decline later in the year.
Source: Should Canadians Choose a Fixed or Variable Rate During a Trade War? – Integrated Mortgage Planners – July 7, 2025
🔑 Broker Strategy: Encourage clients to take a longer-term perspective. Explain that while trade tension can disrupt sentiment, supply constraints in many regions are likely to underpin prices over time.
5️⃣ Housing Market Outlook: Uneven Recovery Continues
While some local markets are showing signs of stabilization, others remain in correction territory. The latest commentary highlights that buyers and sellers are still digesting the impact of last year’s rate hikes. Brokers report an uptick in first-time buyer inquiries as clients anticipate a more balanced market this summer.
Source:
BTBB Sunday Blog – Dustan Woodhouse – July 6, 2025
🔑 Broker Strategy: Be proactive with education. Help clients understand that timing the market perfectly is nearly impossible—and the right strategy often comes down to personal timelines and goals.
📢 Final Thought:
Bond yields are inching higher, job data is sending mixed messages, and tariff fears are back in play. This is the week to double down on clarity and consistency—your clients need a guide who can separate headlines from actionable trends.
📢 Stay Informed, Stay Ahead!
These updates are a high-level summary. For deeper insights, subscribe to Mortgage Logic News via our ABW Agent Intranet under our corporate plan.

EPISODE 44: BEHIND THE LENDER with Jeff Adamson, Co-Founder of Neo Financial
Guest: Jeff Adamson
Jeff Adamson, Co-Founder of Neo Financial and SkipTheDishes, unpacks how Neo is reshaping Canadian banking and mortgage lending by merging fintech innovation with a relentless focus on user experience. From building custom core banking infrastructure to championing open banking and AI-powered personalization, Jeff shares why modern borrowers expect frictionless, transparent options—and how brokers can thrive by embracing technology, data, and trust to better serve their clients in an era of rapid change.
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