
6/10/2025:
Tuesday Mortgage Memo: Your Weekly Market Highlights
5 KEY HIGHLIGHTS BROKERS NEED TO KNOW
With rising unemployment, bond market volatility, and ongoing inflation pressures, this week offers both warning signs and opportunities. Here’s what matters now:
1️⃣ Canadian Labour Market Sends Mixed Signals—BoC Still Eyes Cuts
Canada's unemployment rate edged up to 7.0% in May, its highest level since 2016 (excluding pandemic years). Full-time job growth masked deeper issues: part-time jobs declined sharply, self-employment dropped, and public sector hiring cooled post-election. Wage inflation ticked down to 3.4%. Private sector job gains offered a silver lining, but the trend remains concerning for overall momentum.
Source: Dr. Sherry Cooper, Dominion Lending Centres – “Weak Canadian Labour Report in May Points Towards BoC Easing”, June 7, 2025
🔑 Broker Strategy: Time to prep clients for potential BoC cuts by late summer. Renewals and pre-approvals should factor in falling rate scenarios. Be proactive with borrowers who may benefit from requalification or pre-emptive budgeting adjustments.
2️⃣ U.S. Inflation & Jobs Data May Hijack Canadian Rate Path
All eyes are on the U.S. this week. Core inflation is already running at 2.8% YoY, and if CPI surprises to the upside on June 12, the Fed is likely to delay any cuts. Strong job numbers—though frequently revised—have markets recalibrating their rate expectations. The U.S. CPI print could directly sway Canadian bond yields and influence BoC policy.
Source: Bruno Valko, RMG Monday Morning Bru – “Big Week with US Inflation on Wednesday and What's Up or Down with US Jobs Data”, June 9, 2025
🔑 Broker Strategy: Watch for Wednesday’s U.S. CPI data. A hot print will lift fixed rates temporarily. Consider encouraging short-term rate locks for clients on the fence or those approaching close dates.
3️⃣ The 3-Year Fixed Reclaims Its Value Crown
The 3-year fixed term outperformed others in both volume and rate projections, as volatility in 5-year variable products makes borrowers increasingly risk-averse. Term selection continues to lean toward flexibility, with the 3-year gaining ground since May.
Source: Mortgage Logic News – “Rates in Holding Pattern: This Week in Rateland”, June 9, 2025
🔑 Broker Strategy: Emphasize the 3-year fixed as a strategic "middle-ground" for borrowers unsure about long-term trends but wanting short-term certainty. A helpful pitch for fence-sitters nervous about mixed economic data.
4️⃣ Delinquencies on the Rise—Renewals Under Pressure
Ontario saw a 71.5% year-over-year surge in 90+ day mortgage delinquencies in Q1. BC wasn’t far behind. These signals underscore the strain of elevated interest rates and the ongoing “Great Renewal” wave from pandemic-era mortgages.
Source: RMG Mortgages – “Bank of Canada June 4th, 2025: To Cut or Not to Cut”, Slide 13
🔑 Broker Strategy: This is your opening for client outreach. Offer debt consolidation, HELOC reviews, or budget counselling before delinquencies set in. Renewals this year are more than paperwork—they're a lifeline.
5️⃣ Dustan’s Take: Housing Supply Crisis Is No Time for Short-Sighted Policy
In a sharp critique of the foreign buyer ban, Dustan Woodhouse argues that cutting out upfront capital in the form of foreign presale buyers is exacerbating Canada’s housing supply shortage. Towers don’t get built without presale financing—and the supply collapse may hit hardest in the coming years.
Source: Dustan Woodhouse, BTBB Blog – “The (Moronic) Foreign Buyer Ban”, June 8, 2025
🔑 Broker Strategy: Educate clients about structural supply issues and how these long-term trends could support prices even during rate volatility. Especially relevant for investors or those debating entering the market.
📢 Final Thought:
This week, adaptability is everything. With rate cuts not guaranteed and delinquencies rising, brokers must be both market-savvy and service-forward. Focus on 3-year fixed options, monitor key U.S. data, and use housing narratives to engage uncertain buyers.
📢 Stay Informed, Stay Ahead!
These updates are a high-level summary. For deeper insights, subscribe to Mortgage Logic News via our ABW Agent Intranet under our corporate plan.

EPISODE 42: BEHIND THE LENDER with Damon Knights, VP National Sales at Equitable Bank
Guest: Damon Knights
Damon Knights, VP of National Sales at Equitable Bank, shares how EQB builds broker trust through fast communication, practical training, and relationship-driven lending—focusing on trust over rates in today’s competitive market.
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