
12/09/2025
Tuesday Mortgage Memo: Your Weekly Market Highlights
5 KEY HIGHLIGHTS BROKERS NEED TO KNOW
This week opens with a quieter data docket but meaningful rate movement, driven by global bond pressure, a blockbuster Canadian jobs print, and anticipation ahead of tomorrow’s BoC and Fed announcements. Lenders have already begun raising fixed rates, and swaps continue climbing as economic surprise indices hit multi-year highs. Brokers should brace clients for rapid pricing shifts as markets digest Wednesday’s double-header.
1️⃣Jobs Shock Sends Yields Higher - But the Details Disagree
Canada’s November labour report stunned markets: +54,000 jobs, unemployment plunging from 6.9% to 6.5%, and wage growth rising to 3.6% YoY. But, as seen in both Sherry Cooper’s and David Larock’s breakdowns, the strength is misleading. All job gains came from part-time roles (+63k), full-time fell, and nearly half the drop in unemployment was caused by 26,000 Canadians leaving the labour force. Domestic demand remains weak, and labour flows show a softer market than headlines imply.
Markets reacted instantly. Bond yields spiked, lenders raised fixed rates, and traders pushed out expectations for any further BoC easing.
Source: DLC – Sherry Cooper Newsletter; Larock Blog (Dec 8, 2025)
🔑
Broker Strategy: Tell clients the labour report “looks hot, feels cold.” Emphasize that the BoC will look beneath the headline and focus on weakening participation, flat business investment, and soft domestic demand. Use this moment to educate clients: positive data does not mean rate cuts vanish - it simply means volatility increases. Encourage clients nearing renewal or purchase to review scenarios now, before additional lender repricing rolls through.
2️⃣ Bond Yields Grind Higher Ahead of BoC/Fed - Global Forces Still in Control
The 5-year GoC bond closed Monday +1 bp, but the real story is the sustained upward drift in funding costs and swaps as markets brace for central bank messaging. The 4-year swap hit its highest level since July, driven by a surge in the CITI Economic Surprise Index, which shows Canada printing its most positive surprises in years. Meanwhile, rising Japanese yields and global normalization pressures continue spilling into Canadian markets.
Source: MortgageLogic News – 5yr Yield +1 bp on Central Bank Watch (Dec 9, 2025)
Canadian 4-Year Swap and Economic Surprise Index Reach Multi-Month Highs

🔑 Broker Strategy: Encourage rate-sensitive clients to secure pre-approvals or lock-ins sooner rather than later. Lenders respond quickly to rising funding costs, and this week’s yield spike makes short-notice fixed-rate increases more probable than decreases.
3️⃣Fixed vs. Variable: Momentum Shifts Slightly Toward Mid-Terms
Despite the volatility, national pricing boards show only modest adjustments this week. The 3-year and 5-year fixed remain closely priced, with the 3-year still modelling best for clients wanting flexibility before 2027. Variable remains stable but unloved, as markets begin to price in a small chance of BoC hikes in late 2026 — not cuts. Forward projections still indicate improvement into 2026–2027, but the path is bumpy.
Insured files in the 3.5%–3.9% range are still available selectively, heavily dependent on file strength and lender capacity.
Source: Larock Blog; MLN Mortgage Tidbits (Dec 9, 2025)
🔑 Broker Strategy: Position the discussion as clarity over prediction. When pricing between 3- and 5-year fixed is nearly identical, the decision becomes one of flexibility vs. stability. Use simple modeling to show clients how both terms behave across different rate paths — especially if mid-term volatility continues. For variables, emphasize that the lowest lifetime cost still goes to borrowers comfortable with risk, but that today’s environment heavily rewards those who choose terms that match their stress tolerance.
4️⃣ Lender Behaviour: Discretion Tightens as Volumes Surge
Brokers across the country are reporting early signs of lender strain. Big 6 discretionary rate reductions are now rare, while several institutions — especially those facing December volume surges — are diverting broker-channel files or tightening exception policies.
RMG notes that yields rose nearly 20 bps Friday alone, pushing multiple lenders to move fixed rates up by 10–20 bps across certain buckets.
Turnaround times remain uneven, with insured files getting preferential treatment in several channels. Meanwhile, Marathon Mortgage has rolled out a $10,000 incentive contest targeting increased broker submission volume.
Source: RMG Morning Bru; DLC Updates (Dec 8, 2025)
🔑 Broker Strategy: Submit clean, complete files this week. Lenders are rewarding brokers who reduce friction, especially on insured or low-TDS deals. If discretionary pricing exists, it’s going to the best-packaged files first. When clients hesitate, remind them that underwriters are prioritizing brokers who help them manage year-end volume — meaning fast decisions, better pricing, and smoother approvals for deals submitted now, before December bottlenecks peak.
5️⃣ December 10: The Central Bank Double Header
Odds for Wednesday’s decisions are highly stable:
BoC: 95% chance of a hold at 2.25%
Fed: 87% chance of a –25 bps cut
But the narrative is shifting. The BoC will need to address stronger-than-expected GDP and employment headlines while also acknowledging weak internals. Traders have already removed 2026 cuts from Canada’s OIS curve, with some even pricing the probability of a hike by late next year. RMG suggests the BoC may attempt a “dovish hold” to avoid further upward pressure on bond yields.
Source:
MLN; RMG Morning Bru (Dec 8, 2025)
🔑 Broker Strategy: Tell clients: “Cuts aren’t cancelled - but the timeline is stretching.” Encourage planning around stability rather than a quick easing cycle. Clients renewing in the next 12 months should evaluate breaking early, locking short, or staggering terms based on their income stability and risk tolerance. Purchase clients benefit from rate holds now, even if they don’t transact until Q1. The goal: build mortgage plans that succeed whether or not the BoC pivots in early 2026.
📢 Final Thought:
This week is the embodiment of a noisy market: a jobs report that misleads, swap rates that climb quietly, and a central-bank double header that will set the tone for the next 90 days. But remember — this is a broker’s market. Clients don’t need certainty; they need clarity. Use the data to anchor emotions, simplify the noise, and give clients structured choices built for volatility. When markets are unstable, calm expertise becomes the ultimate differentiator.
📢 Stay Informed, Stay Ahead!
These updates are a high-level summary. For deeper insights, subscribe to Mortgage Logic News via the ABW Agent Intranet under our corporate plan.

EPISODE 55: Behind the Network with Chad Gregory, Dominion Lending Centres
Guest:
Chad Gregory
Hosts: Dean Lawton & Jason Marshall
Chad Gregory, VP of National Sales at Dominion Lending Centres, joins Behind the Network to share how DLC grew from a small startup into Canada’s largest mortgage brand. Chad reflects on DLC’s early days—building the network from the ground up in Ontario, knocking on doors, pitching real estate brokerages, and pushing a bold vision: establish the first nationally recognized mortgage-broker brand. He explains how DLC’s branding strategy, recruiting efforts, and relentless belief in the model helped shift consumer behaviour from 88% bank loyalty to a near 50/50 split between banks and brokers today.
The conversation dives into the tools that now fuel DLC’s competitive edge, including Velocity, the My Mortgage Toolbox app, and the Gold Rush CRM. Chad details how secure document portals, refinance analyzers, automated campaigns, and emerging AI integrations are helping brokers become more efficient, more professional, and better equipped to convert and retain clients. He emphasizes that in a fast-changing market, brokers who embrace technology—and invest in systems that buy back their time—will outperform those who resist change.
Chad also shares timeless sales and business-development strategies, from handwritten cards and emotional deposits to using scripts, practicing role plays, and delivering unexpected post-close touches. These simple habits, he says, turn clients and referral partners into long-term raving fans. Looking ahead, Chad believes DLC’s biggest years are still to come, driven by innovation, consumer demand for advice, and a network committed to helping brokers grow.
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