
4/22/2025:
Tuesday Mortgage Memo: Your Weekly Market Highlights
5 KEY HIGHLIGHTS BROKERS NEED TO KNOW
With central banks pausing, bond markets swinging, and U.S. political theatrics fuelling global volatility, brokers face both risk and reward. Here's what you need to know this week to guide clients and grow your business:
1️⃣ BoC Holds—But the Cut Clock Is Still Ticking
The Bank of Canada (BoC) paused its policy rate at 2.75%, ending a 225-bps cutting streak. But this is likely just an intermission. Two divergent BoC scenarios predict either renewed easing if tariffs cool, or stagflation if a full-blown trade war erupts.
🔑 Broker Strategy: Message clients on variable rates—they may see further savings if easing resumes. Position this pause as a prep window for refinancing ahead of anticipated cuts, especially for clients concerned about economic uncertainty.
2️⃣ U.S. Chaos = Gold Rush & Bond Swings
Trump’s attacks on Fed Chair Powell and persistent trade threats have sent U.S. bond yields wobbling, the dollar sliding, and gold surging to $3,500—up 33% YTD. This "flight from safety" is disrupting market expectations globally.
🔑 Broker Strategy: Reassure clients spooked by the headlines. Pitch fixed-rate mortgages to those seeking stability amid volatility, and highlight that these global shocks may push Canadian yields lower again.
3️⃣ Inflation Outlook: Down But Not Out
Oil prices are down, the carbon tax has been scrapped, and tariff reprieves are in play. All this points to tamer inflation short-term. But risks of a rebound remain if trade tensions flare or deficits deepen.
🔑 Broker Strategy: Promote sub-4% fixed rates as a hedge against future inflation. For borrowers worried about long-term rates, suggest locking now with flexible mid-term products (e.g., 4-year fixed) to benefit from today’s lower pricing without long-term handcuffs.
4️⃣ Housing Inventory Climbs—So Do Discount Opportunities
The housing market is shifting: GTA prices rose 2.6% in early April, but sales dropped 40% YoY. Condo inventories in Vancouver are set to jump 60% this year. Meanwhile, some sellers are taking losses on 2022 purchases.
🔑 Broker Strategy: Target move-up buyers and investors. With softening prices and growing listings, savvy clients can negotiate deals—especially with builder incentives.
5️⃣ Fixed vs Variable: The Trade-War Tug-of-War
Variable mortgages may still be the cheaper path over the full term, but only for borrowers with risk tolerance and financial buffer. For others, 4-year terms may offer strategic timing—maturing just after the next U.S. election.
🔑 Broker Strategy: Offer side-by-side comparisons of 4-year vs 5-year options. For politically cautious clients, frame 4-year terms as a "Trump hedge" that provides early exit flexibility and aligns with average mortgage break timelines.
📢 Final Thought:
The tariff rollercoaster, Powell vs. Trump drama, and BoC caution all underscore one thing: uncertainty is the new normal. Brokers who can cut through the noise, educate clients with clarity, and position the right product at the right time will win this season.
Stay proactive. Stay informed. Stay indispensable.
Let’s make it a strong week ahead!

EPISODE 38: BE THE BETTER BROKER with Dustan Woodhouse
Guest: Dustan Woodhouse
Hosts Dean Lawton and Jason Marshall unpack game-changing insights from the Be The Better Broker conference in Whistler with Dustan Woodhouse, covering everything from emotional intelligence and tech integration to ethical sales strategies and the future of broker education. A must-listen for brokers ready to grow, lead, and thrive in today’s shifting market.
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