
3/5/2025:
Navigating the U.S. Tariffs: A Positive Outlook for Our Team and Clients
Hello Team,
We're excited to share a special bonus blog today, as we believe it's crucial to address the current state of affairs in our country. Our goal is to provide a sense of calm amidst the storm for you, our valued Agents, and, most importantly, for all the clients we serve.
The U.S. tariffs hitting our goods as of March 4, 2025—with steel and aluminum tariffs looming on March 12—have rattled us and our clients. A 25% tariff on most goods, 10% on Canadian energy, and additional 10% on Chinese goods, as announced by President Donald Trump, is no small thing, and the headlines are fueling anxiety. But here’s the truth: Canada’s tougher than this, and so are we. As mortgage brokers, we’re perfectly positioned to calm our clients’ nerves and keep their homeownership goals alive. Let’s unpack what’s happening, what it means for our market, and how we can frame this with optimism. We’ve got this!
What’s Going On: The Lay of the Land
Trump has imposed these tariffs, claiming they’ll force Canada and Mexico to address undocumented migration and drug trafficking—though our Chief Economist notes Canada accounts for only about 1% of both issues. Canada’s political leaders—federal, provincial, all stripes—are pushing back hard, calling it unjust and hitting the U.S. with 25% retaliatory tariffs on $20.7 billion USD of goods (orange juice, peanut butter, etc.), with $107 billion more in the works. Our Chief Economist warns in her blog that this could plunge Canada into a recession with a few quarters of negative growth before recovery, but she also sees the Bank of Canada responding aggressively to ease the impact. Economists like Tiff Macklem from the Bank of Canada highlight a potential 3% GDP drop over two years, and lumber prices could reach $600/thousand board feet. But here’s our strength: Canada’s united, and we’ve got smart moves in play.

What It Means for Mortgage Brokers
- Housing Market Impact: With 75% of our exports ($582 billion USD in 2024) heading to the U.S., tariffs could lift construction costs—lumber, steel, energy all take a hit. Home prices might nudge up, and Bank of Canada rates could hold steady or ease if growth slows (Macklem’s flagged a 3% GDP drop over two years). Our Chief Economist notes the Canadian 5-year yield, a bellwether for fixed mortgage rates, has fallen to 2.51%—its lowest in nearly three years—favoring housing markets, though unemployment and spending drops could temper this. Clients might feel a budget squeeze, but housing demand isn’t fading—Canadians still want homes.
- Our Edge: We’re not just crunching numbers; we’re steadying hands. Clients need us for clarity in this storm. Rates might soften if the economy cools, keeping mortgages within reach, and our dollar’s flexibility could spark a rebound. Plus, our energy exports (20% of U.S. oil) and auto ties mean the U.S. can’t push too far without blowback—our Chief Economist underscores how integrated supply chains benefit both nations.
- Canada’s Response: Our politicians—across the board—are aligned, filing USMCA and WTO disputes and crafting sharp retaliation. Think Ontario’s Doug Ford eyeing a 25% electricity export tax—15% of U.S. Northeast power comes from us. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly’s words ring true for all: “Canada stands firm.” This is a team effort, and it’s working.
Realistic Outcomes: Bright Spots to Share with Clients
Here are three solid scenarios to share with clients—each with a positive angle to ease fears and keep them on track:
1. The Negotiation Win – Rates Stay Friendly
- Scenario: U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s hinted at flexibility—Canada boosts border efforts, and Trump scales tariffs back to 10% or spares energy by mid-2025. Trade steadies, and our GDP takes just a 1% hit, per potential negotiations.
- Client Spin: “The U.S. relies on us too much to let this drag on. A deal’s likely, and if rates ease, your mortgage stays affordable. Let’s lock in now—home values should hold firm.”
- Why It Works: Talks happened March 4, per Lutnick, and our oil and auto links push compromise. Clients stay calm, and we keep deals moving.
2. The Pivot Play – A Stronger Canada Emerges
- Scenario: Tariffs linger, but Canada pivots—new trade with the EU and Asia offsets losses. Oil flows to India, autos to Mexico, and GDP dips 1.5% in 2025 but climbs to 2% by 2027. The loonie dips then rises, boosting our edge.
- Client Spin: “Canada’s finding new paths forward. Your home’s still a smart buy—prices might rise short-term, but growth’s coming. Let’s plan for that upswing!”
- Why It Works: We’ve got trade deals like CETA and CPTPP ready, and exporters are adapting. Clients see a future worth investing in.
3. The Mutual Reset – Stability Returns
- Scenario: Both sides ease up by summer 2025—U.S. consumers balk at higher gas and lumber, our retaliation bites (Michigan jobs, power cuts), and tariffs drop to 5-10%. Economic damage is light, and rates stay client-friendly, per our Chief Economist’s outlook on Bank of Canada action.
- Client Spin: “This is a bump, not a crash. The U.S. feels this too, so a truce is near. Your mortgage is safe, and homeownership’s still golden—let’s get you settled!”
- Why It Works: Our tied economies mean mutual pain—U.S. markets dipped March 4, per reports—and trade pacts force talks. Clients stay confident, and we keep closing.
Your Playbook: Inspire and Act
Team, we’re the frontline for clients right now. They’re worried—home costs creeping up, job jitters—but we can flip that script. Highlight Canada’s grit: we’ve tackled trade spats before and come out stronger. Point to our leaders’ unity—every politician’s in this fight—and our economic clout (energy, manufacturing). Share these outcomes: a deal, a pivot, or a reset—all keep the housing market humming. Urge clients to act—rates could soften, and homes remain a solid investment. We’re not just brokers; we’re their rock.
Imagine this: next year, we’re thriving, with clients thanking us for keeping them steady. Let’s turn their concern into confidence, lean on each other, and show what Canada’s made of. You’ve got the tools—go make it happen! Need more for a client pitch? Just holler!
Insight from Our Chief Economist
- Dr. Sherry Cooper
In her latest blog, our Chief Economist writes: “This is a lose-lose situation and President Trump underestimates the negative fallout of his actions at home and abroad. Retaliation will be swift… Lower interest rates are favorable for housing markets, although the inevitable rise in unemployment and drop in spending will mitigate this effect.” Her analysis aligns with our approach, emphasizing both challenges and opportunities for our sector.
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We look forward to helping you stay ahead of the market in 2025.






