
5/20/2025:
Tuesday Mortgage Memo: Your Weekly Market Highlights
5 KEY HIGHLIGHTS BROKERS NEED TO KNOW
With inflation surprises, bond market turbulence, and tariff fallout pressuring sentiment, brokers have a lot to track. Here’s what you need to stay informed and ahead:
1️⃣ Core Inflation Surprises = Rate Cut Hopes Dimmed
Canada’s April inflation came in at 1.7% YoY—slightly higher than market consensus. While overall CPI slowed, core inflation metrics like CPI Trimmed-Mean jumped to 3.1%, above the Bank of Canada’s comfort zone. Bond markets reacted swiftly, with 5-year yields rising nearly 10 bps early Tuesday.
Source: Bruno Valko, RMG Morning Bru – May 20, 2025
🔑 Broker Strategy: Let fixed-rate clients know that surprise inflation data may push lender rates higher. Pre-approvals are a timely hedge.
2️⃣ Tariff Fallout Stalls Housing Momentum
National home sales remained unchanged in April (-0.1% MoM), with average home prices falling 1.2%. Tariff anxiety has sidelined buyers in major metros, while new listings dropped 1%. Confidence is low, and the Bank of Canada is expected to cut its overnight rate on June 4—pending a cooperative May inflation report.
Source: Dr. Sherry Cooper, Dominion Lending Centres – May 15, 2025
🔑 Broker Strategy: For hesitant buyers, frame the current slowdown as a short-term opportunity to negotiate better pricing, especially in supply-heavy regions.
3️⃣ Americans Are Feeling It Too—Sentiment Crashes
U.S. consumer sentiment sank to 50.8 in May, the second lowest since 2022. Mounting tariff-related inflation and recession concerns are rattling confidence. Walmart and Loblaw have both confirmed price increases due to cross-border tariffs, signaling further economic strain ahead.
Source: Bruno Valko, RMG Friday Morning Bru – May 16, 2025
🔑 Broker Strategy: Position yourself as a calming voice in volatile times. Highlight variable rates’ resilience in a weakening economy and stress long-term planning over short-term panic.
4️⃣ Moody’s Downgrade of U.S. Credit Hits Bond Markets
Moody’s cut the U.S. credit rating to Aa1, citing rising debt and tax shortfalls. Markets responded with caution. Investors shifted to safety, and Canadian yields tracked U.S. moves. The 5-year bond yield closed at 2.876%, up 9.6 bps, adding upward pressure to fixed mortgage pricing.
Source: Bruno Valko, RMG Morning Bru – May 20, 2025
🔑 Broker Strategy: Educate clients on the global nature of mortgage pricing. A downgrade in Washington can ripple into Toronto. Prompt pre-approvals help clients avoid market whiplash.
5️⃣ BoC Rate Cut Odds Near 50%—But That Window May Shrink
Bond investors are currently pricing in a 50% chance of a rate cut at the Bank of Canada’s June 4 meeting. Yet with inflation data surprising to the upside, and variable-rate discounts holding steady, the rate outlook is murky again.
Source: David Larock, Integrated Mortgage Planners – May 20, 2025
🔑 Broker Strategy: For rate shoppers on the fence, explain that the expected cuts may come slower than anticipated. Offer clarity on hybrid mortgage strategies to manage uncertainty.
📢 Final Thought:
Rising core inflation, tariff-driven economic drag, and weakening sentiment are converging into a high-stakes few weeks for borrowers. Brokers who guide clients with clarity—and act decisively—can deliver unmatched value in this volatile market.
📢 Stay Informed, Stay Ahead!
These updates are a high-level summary. For deeper insights, subscribe to Mortgage Logic News via our ABW Agent Intranet under our corporate plan.

EPISODE 41: BEHIND THE LEADER with Mario Cloutier, Head of Mortgage Creditor at MPP
Guest: Mario Cloutier
Mario Cloutier, Head of Mortgage Creditor at MPP, shares leadership strategies rooted in collaboration, clear communication, and training - while urging brokers to treat mortgage protection as essential to financial planning.
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